If experience teaches us anything, it teaches that the COVID-19 pandemic will end. Things we enjoyed before, will be enjoyed again. People still want to shop, travel, dine-out, go to theater, attend live concerts and sporting events, marvel at fireworks displays, celebrate family gatherings, and do all the things that enrich our lives. Demand did not simply evaporate; it remains strong. Pressure is building. Pent-up demand is rising. It is waiting to be unleashed. Are you ready?
Pundits speak of a “new normal” – but what does that even mean?
Not long ago, during the Great Recession, we heard talk of a new normal as well. How long did it take for that new normal to become a faded memory once the economy rebounded and began to expand? (Not long.)
Clearly, this pandemic has been devastating, with tragic loss of life, severe illness, and widespread economic devastation. New words and phrases have entered our lexicon, like asymptomatic, social distancing, bending-the-curve, intubation, N95, no-mask/no entry, quarantine, self-isolation, COVID-Lease amendments, COVID-abatements, PPP loans, sneeze-barriers, and the like. Although we learned in pre-school to “wash our hands”, we’ve gained new appreciation for this simple task since March 2020.
Discussions now focus on a need to reconfigure health facilities, office space, restaurants, hotels, conference centers, congregate living facilities, schools, places of worship, public transportation, shopping centers, and more, to prevent the spread of infectious disease. Some claim this pandemic will cause a seismic shift away from urban living and centralized business districts, in favor of far-flung regions linked together by Zoom or other remote video-conferencing technologies.
But will it?
A growing number of medical experts believe that multiple effective vaccines and treatments will be available shortly, which could bring the COVID pandemic to an end by the third or fourth quarter of 2021. What then?
When COVID cases are no longer in the news, will we remain preoccupied with social distancing, isolation, remote offices, and remote meetings? Or will be get back to business as usual? Will we stay hunkered down in our suburban home-offices while our competition is out actively meeting with prospects and clients, looking for development opportunities, and doing business in person?
Is the central business district dead? Is urban living to be no more? Will theaters, bars, and restaurants remain closed? Navy Pier? Magnificent Mile? The restaurant and shopping scene in Chicago’s West Loop, Fulton Market, Pilsen, Greektown, Streeterville, Chinatown, Little Italy, Bronzeville, River North, and neighborhoods and suburbs beyond? Are they gone for good?
How long will it take before the “new normal” gives way to the “old normal” – with restaurants and banquet halls reopening, people dining out, going to live concerts, returning to the office, taking vacations, meeting in-person with customers, clients and friends, going to sporting events and live theater or the movies, spending money on leisure activities, buying urban condos, staying at downtown hotels, and doing all the things they recently enjoyed?
What are the implications for adaptive reuse of commercial space left vacant by this pandemic, and for commercial real estate investment and development, and for business in general? What will be in demand this next summer and fall?
What will be the turning point? Many of my clients are already looking past the pandemic to the next wave of opportunity. Are you?
How are you positioning yourself for the opportunities that are coming? Is your professional team still intact? Did they retire? Move away? Go out of business?
What opportunity awaits?
Are you ready for what comes next? Should we talk?
Thanks for listening,
Kymn
